This two-year project proposes to develop and evaluate forecasting models for trends in each seven index crime rates in the United States. These models will employ a macro social indicator modelling framework and a routine activity theoretical approach to crime trends, as well as some more traditional approaches. The applicants have already demonstrated that these techniques can explain 96 percent or more of the variance in certain crime rates over the post-World War II period in the United States, with no clear autocorrelation of disturbances, with substantively meaningful coefficients and with a fair ability to make ex-post forecasts. The proposed research will apply similar techniques to each of the seven index crime rates, attempting several different versions of each equation and in general linking crime trends to certain trends in family, household, population and labor force structure. The equations will be estimated on official crime rate data from 1947-1972 and then applied to ex-post forecasts for 1973-1975 or 1976, comparing forecast to actual values. In addition, alternative projections of crime rates will be estimated based on simulations of the observed equations, through 1985. The project will isolate some bellwether indicators which officials can use to anticipate the direction of crime rate trends and fluctuations.